Iraq will not inform the IAEA about the status of nuclear material under safeguards in Iraq as long as air attacks continue on Iraqi targets, Iraq's ambassador to the IAEA, Rahim Alkital, told Nucleonics Week February 11.
According to well-placed diplomatic sources in Vienna and a February 6 report from the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in Tel Aviv, 20 kilograms of high-enriched uranium (HEU) are "still in Iraqi hands."
Under INFCIRC-153, the model safeguards agreement for signatories of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). if Iraq moved safeguarded material in anticipation of an attack. Baghdad must report to the IAEA by February 28. But because the U.S. attacked safeguarded facilities in Iraq and is bombing civilian populations, Alkital said, "Why should we hold to the letter of INFCIRC-153?"
At issue are 12.3 kilograms of high-enriched uranium (HEU), enriched to 93% U-235, and about 10 kg enriched to 80% U-235. Before the war began, the material was at the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center. near Baghdad. The 93%-enriched material is in the form of 33 fresh metal fuel assemblies. About 4 kg of the 80%-enriched material was in the IRT-5000 research reactor core at the time of the last inspection: the remaining 6 kg is in the form of spent fuel and fresh fuel that has been stored at Tuwaitha.
U.S. military commanders reported that reactors and other facilities at Tuwaitha were "totally destroyed" January 18 in an attack by sea-launched Tomahawk cruise mIssiles and laser-guided bombs fired from F-Ill-F aircraft (NW, 24 Jan., 1).
Alkital said this week that Iraq has not informed the IAEA about any change in the status of safeguarded nuclear material in Iraq and did not intend to inform the agency in the near future. Throughout the Gulf War, Alkital said, the Iraqi mission in Vienna has maintained "routine contact" with the Iraqi government in Baghdad.
But Saddam Hussein has given no instructions to reveal the status of the safeguarded material to the IAEA. "Any statement made by anybody else about the matter is pure speculation." Alkital said.
Well-placed diplomatic sources said officials from the Iraqi Atomic Energy Commission told IAEA inspectors late Last year that they intended to move the material away from Tuwaitha
Some IAEA officials believe that Iraq transferred the material to a secret site before January 15, when the Iraqis knew their country could be attacked upon expiration of the deadline set by the United Nations Security Council for Iraqi withdrawal from Kuwait.
Sources said that the movement of Iraqi safeguarded materials has been discussed at the IAEA. Jon Jennekens, IAEA Director of Safeguards. refused to comment. But according to safeguards experts familiar with Iraqi faciliies, IAEA officials have recently concurred that Iraq could remove all fresh, in-core, and spent fuel from Tuwaitha reactors and storage pools and transfer it to another site in less than 10 days.
Iraq was "clearly motivated" to move the material be-fore January 15, one U.S. State Department official said. Four days before the IAEA conducted its most recent safe-guards inspection in Iraq last November. U.S. President George Bush asserted that Iraq might be able to possess a nuclear weapon within less than a year. U.S. officials there-after said that. Bush's statement was based on a "worst-case appraisal" under which iraq would snatch the safeguarded HEU and try to make a crude nuclear bomb (NW, 29 Nov. '90,7).
Alkital said last month that the "U.S.-Israeli decision to destroy our scientific installations was made long before the so-called Gulf crisis."
Iraq Must Report to IAEA
Diplomatic sources in Vienna said that IAEA Director General Hans Blix has been "unsuccessful" in procuring a statement from Iraq about the post-attack status of nuclear material under safeguards. While IAEA sources said Blix might request an account at the winter meeting of the agency's Board of Governors, scheduled for February 26-27, Alkital told Nucleonics Week that Iraq will remain silent about the status of the HEU.
Because the U.S. is "bombing our civilian population," Alkital said, "now is not the time to speak about these things.
According to safeguards officials, Iraq must report the material's status to the agency before March 1, regardless of whether the material was moved before the air attack.
INFCIRC-153. the model Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) safeguards agreement, states that if a country moves its safeguarded material, it must submit to the IAEA an "inventory change report" by the end of the calendar month following the transfer. Thus if Iraq moved the HEU before January 15, the IAEA should be notified of its new location by February 28.
Under paragraph 68a of INFCIRC-153, "if any unusual incident or circumstances lead the State (Ed. note: the country entering into the safeguards agreement with the IAEA) to believe that there is or may have been loss of nuclear material," it must file a "special report" to the JAEA. According to experts in safeguards law, bombing of the facility where the material was stored should provoke an Iraqi status report.
But since the U.S. bombed Iraq's safeguarded facilities, Alkital said Iraq is asking "why should we hold to the letter of INFCIRC-153?"
U.S. Must Explain Attacks
After about 100 Iraqi aircraft flew to cover in Iran last week, speculation mounted that Iraq's stock of HEU was on board transport craft. Safeguards officials said that under INFCIRC-153, transfer to another country of safeguarded material requires notification of the IAEA two weeks before the transfer under paragraphs 92 and 95 of the document.
"In the interest of even-handedness," one IAEA official said. Blix may also ask the U.S. to explain why it bombed safeguarded facilities at Tuwaitha
Alkital called the U.S. attacks "a major blow to the credibility of the safeguards regime."
U.S. officials said that if Iraq were to report that it moved the HEU before the allied air attack on Tuwaitha. the U.S. would come under pressure to explain why it bombed the Tuwaitha facilities. Diplomatic sources said the U.S. would resist giving an explanation for the attacks at the Board of Governors meeting. "The U.S. might be willing to discuss this at the United Nations, but not at the IAEA," one U.S. official said.
Israeli intelligence has long claimed that Iraq was carrying out nuclear weapons research at Tuwaitha, although U.S. agencies say there is no substantiating evidence of that. A senior U.S. official said that the destruction of the Tuwaitha facilities might be explained as designed to eliminate the reactors' weapons research potential.
The reactors, however, are too small to produce significant quantities of plutonium. Some sources speculate that Israel asked the U.S. to bomb the reactors in exchange for its agreement not to respond in kind to Iraq's Scud missile attacks. However, one well-placed U.S. official said that the bombing of Tuwaitha "was simply a knee-jerk reaction by the U.S. Department of Defense to hit all Iraq's nuclear facilities, regardless of whether they were militarily significant or not."-Mark Hibbs, Bonn
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