The Energy [R]evolution Scenario has a target for the reduction of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions by 50% below 1990 levels by 2050, with per capita carbon dioxide emissions reduced to less than 1.3 tonnes per year in order for the increase in global temperature to remain under +2°C. A second objective is to show that this is even possible with the global phasing out of nuclear energy.
(652.5786) Greenpeace - This new publication by Greenpeace and EREC (European Renewable Energy Council) provides stimulating analysis on future scenarios of energy use, which focus on a range of technologies that are expected to emerge in the coming years and decades. There is now universal recognition of the fact that new technologies and much greater use of some that already exist provide the most hopeful prospects for mitigation of emissions of greenhouse gasses.
Climate threats and solutions
An average global warming of 2°C threatens millions of people with an increased risk of hunger, malaria, flooding and water shortages. If rising temperatures are to be kept within acceptable limits then we need to significantly reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. This makes both environmental and economic sense. The main greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide (co2 ) produced by using fossil fuels for energy and transport. Spurred by recent large increases in the price of oil, the issue of security of supply is now at the top of the energy policy agenda. One reason for these price increases is the fact that supplies of all fossil fuels - oil, gas and coal - are becoming scarcer and more expensive to produce.
The days of "cheap oil and gas" are coming to an end. Uranium, the fuel for nuclear power, is also a finite resource. By contrast, the reserves of renewable energy that are technically accessible globally are large enough to provide about six times more power than the world currently consumes forever.
Renewable energy technologies vary widely in their technical and economic maturity, but there are a range of sources which offer increasingly attractive options. These sources include wind, biomass, photovoltaic, solar thermal, geothermal, ocean and hydroelectric power. Their common feature is that they produce little or no greenhouse gases, and rely on virtually inexhaustible natural sources for their "fuel". Some of these technologies are already competitive. Their economics will further improve as they develop technically, as the price of fossil fuels continues to rise and as their saving of carbon dioxide emissions is given a monetary value.
At the same time there is enormous potential for reducing our consumption of energy, while providing the same level of energy 'services'. This study details a series of energy efficiency measures which together can substantially reduce demand in industry, homes, business and services.
The solution to our future energy needs lies in greater use of renewable energy sources for both heat and power. Nuclear power is not the solution as it poses multiple threats to people and the environment. These include the risks and environmental damage from uranium mining, processing and transport, the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation, the unsolved problem of nuclear waste and the potential hazard of a serious accident. The nuclear option is therefore eliminated in this analysis.
The Energy [R]evolution
The climate change imperative demands nothing short of an energy revolution. At the core of this revolution will be a change in the way that energy is produced, distributed and consumed. The five key principles behind this shift will be to:
- Implement renewable solutions, especially through decentralised energy systems
- Respect the natural limits of the environment
- Phase out dirty, unsustainable energy sources
- Create greater equity in the use of resources
- Decouple economic growth from the consumption of fossil fuels
Decentralised energy systems, where power and heat are produced close to the point of final use, avoid the current waste of energy during conversion and distribution. They will be central to the Energy [R]evolution, as will the need to provide electricity to the two billion people around the world to whom access is presently denied.
Two scenarios up to the year 2050 are outlined in this report. The reference scenario is based on the business as usual scenario published by the International Energy Agency in World Energy Outlook 2004, extrapolated forward from 2030.
Compared to the 2004 IEA projections, the new World Energy Outlook 2006 assumes a slightly higher average annual growth rate of world GDP of 3.4%, instead of 3.2%, for the 2004-2030 time horizon. At the same time, WEO 2006 expects final energy consumption in 2030 to be 4% higher than in WEO 2004. A sensitivity analysis on the impact of economic growth on energy demand under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario shows that an increase of average world GDP of 0.1% (over the time period 2003- 2050) leads to an increase in final energy demand of about 0.2%.
The Energy [R]evolution Scenario has a target for the reduction of worldwide emissions by 50% below 1990 levels by 2050, with per capita carbon dioxide emissions reduced to less than 1.3 tonnes per year in order for the increase in global temperature to remain under +2°C. A second objective is to show that this is even possible with the global phasing out of nuclear energy. To achieve these targets, the scenario is characterised by significant efforts to fully exploit the large potential for energy efficiency. At the same time, cost-effective renewable energy sources are accessed for both heat and electricity generation, as well as the production of biofuels.
Today, renewable energy sources account for 13% of the world's primary energy demand. Biomass, which is mainly used for heating, is the largest renewable source. The share of renewable energy in electricity generation is 18%, whilst the contribution of renewables to heat supply is around 26%. About 80% of primary energy supply still comes from fossil fuels, and the remaining 7% from nuclear power.
The Energy [R]evolution Scenario describes a development pathway which transforms the present situation into a sustainable energy supply.
o Exploitation of the large energy efficiency potential will reduce primary energy demand from the current 435,000 PJ/a (Peta Joules per year) to 422,000 PJ/a by 2050. Under the reference scenario there would be an increase to 810,000 PJ/a. This dramatic reduction is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a significant share of renewable energy sources, compensating for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reducing the consumption of fossil fuels.
o The increased use of combined heat and power generation (CHP) also improves the supply system's energy conversion efficiency, increasingly using natural gas and biomass. In the long term, decreasing demand for heat and the large potential for producing heat directly from renewable energy sources limits the further expansion of CHP.
o The electricity sector will be the pioneer of renewable energy utilisation. By 2050, around 70% of electricity will be produced from renewable energy sources, including large hydro. An installed capacity of 7,100 GW will produce 21,400 Terawatt hours per year (TWh/a) of electricity in 2050.
o In the heat supply sector, the contribution of renewables will increase to 65% by 2050. Fossil fuels will be increasingly replaced by more efficient modern technologies, in particular biomass, solar collectors and geothermal.
o Before biofuels can play a substantial role in the transport sector, the existing large efficiency potentials have to be exploited. In this study, biomass is primarily committed to stationary applications; the use of biofuels for transport is limited by the availability of sustainably grown biomass.
o By 2050, half of primary energy demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.
To achieve an economically attractive growth of renewable energy sources, a balanced and timely mobilisation of all renewable technologies is of great importance. This depends on technical potentials, actual costs, cost reduction potentials and technological maturity.
Development of co2 emissions
Whilst worldwide co2 emissions will almost double under the reference scenario by 2050 - far removed from a sustainable development path - under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario emissions will decrease from 23,000 million tonnes in 2003 to 11,500 million tonnes in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 4.0 t to 1.3 t. In the long run, efficiency gains and the increased use of biofuels will even reduce co2 emissions in the transport sector. With a share of 36% of total co2 emissions in 2050, the power sector will be overtaken by the transport sector as the largest source of emissions.
Costs
Due to the growing demand for power, we are facing a significant increase in society's expenditure on electricity supply. Under the reference scenario, the undiminished growth in demand, the increase in fossil fuel prices and the costs of co2 emissions all result in electricity supply costs rising from today's $1,130 billion per year to more than $4,300 bn per year in 2050. The Energy [R]evolution Scenario not only complies with global co2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energy costs and thus relieve the economic pressure on society. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewable energy resources leads to long term costs for electricity supply that are one third lower than in the reference scenario. It becomes obvious that following stringent environmental targets in the energy sector also pays off in economic terms.
To make the Energy [R]evolution real and to avoid dangerous climate change, the following assumptions need to be implemented:
- The phasing out of all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy and the internalisation of external costs
- The setting out of legally binding targets for renewable energy
- The provision of defined and stable returns for investors
- Guaranteed priority access to the grid for renewable generators
- Strict efficiency standards for all energy consuming appliances, buildings and vehicles
Source: "Energy (R)evolution: a sustainable world energy outlook", January 2007 by Greenpeace and EREC.
Contact: Sven Teske, Greenpeace International renewable energy campaign. Ottho Heldringstraat 5, 1066 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Tel: +31 62129 68 94
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