(516.5068) CORE - The Kinlen theory, first mooted in 1988, suggests that in rare cases
exposure to a common unidentified infection through population mixing results in the disease. "This
exposure is greater", Prof. Kinlen says, "when people from urban areas mix with rural communities
e.g. when construction workers and nuclear staff move into the Sellafield area".
Newcastle's findings result from a study of 119,539 children born in Cumbria (excluding Seascale)
between 1969 and 1989. The researchers claim that children were much more likely to develop either
Acute Lymphatic Leukemia (ALL) or Non Hodgkins Lymphoma (NHL) if both their parents were born
outside Cumbria, and that during their research they had devised a statistical model to see whether
they could accurately predict the number of cases of ALL and NHL among children in Seascale. They
further claim that the Seascale cluster could have been predicted because of the amount of
population mixing going on in the area, and that their research shows that around half the cases of
ALL and NHL among Seascale children could be linked to an infection resulting from
population-mixing. The study did not look at radiation effects.
The research work has been openly supported, in an editorial to the British Journal of Cancer and
in the wider media by Professor Sir Richard Doll who claims that the Kinlen hypothesis can be
regarded as establishing population mixing as a cause of childhood lymphoblastic leukemia.
However, the Kinlen theory, the Newcastle research and its support from Sir Richard Doll has
been widely dismissed by leukemia victim families, local pressure groups and others as a
regurgitated red-herring, promoted at a time leading to the partial privatization of BNFL (see In Brief).
An unsubstantiated theory for which no virus has ever been identified, it has received no
international acclaim and is supported only by further work of Prof. Kinlen himself, originator of
the theory. Successive health studies, including those from government advisory bodies such as the
Committee on Aspects of Radiation in the Environment (COMARE), have given some credibility to the
virus theory but have been anxious to clarify that other causes such as radiation and chemicals may
also be a factor in affecting the incidence of leukemia and NHL around Sellafield.
Professor Sir Richard Doll, described by the media as an "eminent" cancer specialist, has come
in for criticism recently. His outspoken support for Newcastle University's work relating to the
population-mixing theory is in contrast to his written reply to CORE's Health Campaigner in 1989
that "I am personally far from convinced that a virus plays any part in the production of childhood
leukemia, but the idea is scientifically attractive .... because it could explain some of the
epidemiological findings. Only one factor is firmly established as a cause of childhood leukemia:
namely radiation".
Prof. Doll later agreed to be a BNFL witness to testify against Cumbrian leukemia victims. As a
then Director of the Imperial Cancer research Fund, he was also a member of the United Kingdom
Coordinating Committee for Cancer Research (UKCCCR) which received £3 million (US$ 4.9
million) funding from BNFL, the CEGB and the UKAEA for research into the cause of childhood
leukemia.
There are several indicators as to the invalidity of the Kinlen theory in Cumbria. Despite the significant influx of almost 8000 construction workers to West Cumbria in the 1940's, no leukemias were recorded until several years after the then Windscale plant had started its military plutonium operations in the early 1950's. Whilst the Lake District, as an international tourist area, sees substantial population-mixing year in year out, no significant incidence of leukemia has been found. Conversely, in some small Cumbrian villages close to the Irish Sea coast and where there has been little or no population-mixing, a significantly high rate of childhood leukemia has been recorded.
BNFL has paid out millions of pounds in compensation to its workers for a range of cancers, including leukemia, on a probability of just 20% that the cancers were caused by radiation. The company, which has continuously attempted to discredit research that connects radiation with leukemia, has welcomed the Newcastle study. Close links have existed between the company and the university for a number of years, with cooperative research projects being undertaken at the off-site Westlakes Science Park which houses BNFL's Research Institute with BNFL Laboratories, scientists and money. The Newcastle University study has been funded mainly by the North of England Children's Cancer Research Fund, with other funding from UKCCCR and from Westlakes.
Source: CORE Briefing, 16 August 1999
Contact: Cumbrians Opposed to a Radioactive Environment,
98 Church St, Barrow, Cumbria LA14 2HJ, UK.
Tel: +44-1229-833851;
Fax: +44-1229-812239
Email: info@core.furness.co.uk
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