(407.4036) WISE Amsterdam - The 204 secret tests are important when looking upon verification issues concerning a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). In other words, a CTBT could be postponed by countries demanding a 100% verifiable CTBT.
Seismic stations in the US have been able to track down 111 of the 204 tests, because these tests occurred exactly on the hour as an "earth quake". However the former Soviet Union claim that they detected 29 more tests than the 204 admitted tests. One of the explanations for the discrepancy could be that more then one explosion with in one test has been counted as a separate test.
The discussions concerning verification of a CTBT are a little blurred by the DOE data. Methods to hide nuclear tests comprise of cavities dug near a test site to suppress seismic activities, this method could be use by "sophisticated" countries. Commercial satellites however are already capable of detecting preparation activities for nuclear tests. The last Chinese test in 1993 is one example, detected by commercial satellites before it exploded.
Source: New Scientist
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